Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 26.603825 29.472623 32.743964 36.803531 41.784255 47.806216 55.820814
2025-02-23 22.343796 25.926723 30.366799 36.453875 44.906439 56.815733 76.195466
2025-03-02 19.719727 23.661833 28.860370 36.578549 48.516031 68.032704 107.961245
2025-03-09 17.720744 21.786842 27.402720 36.278584 51.312253 79.554676 154.086713
2025-03-16 16.195533 20.288778 26.151518 35.905144 53.786462 92.169432 228.577626
2025-03-23 14.993404 19.068012 25.079789 35.524136 56.070552 106.313001 364.640379
2025-03-30 14.053747 18.106369 24.242484 35.326196 58.630456 123.853573 692.262673
2025-04-06 13.146378 17.094705 23.185439 34.508217 59.566372 138.124378 1498.797237
2025-04-13 12.834508 16.944984 23.485826 36.259379 67.260637 189.658676 NaN
2025-04-20 12.205534 16.242850 22.773335 35.871818 69.379906 223.198948 NaN
2025-04-27 11.745951 15.768381 22.394250 36.092739 73.383408 282.848934 NaN
2025-05-04 11.359881 15.379325 22.118735 36.478786 78.185838 378.060517 NaN
2025-05-11 10.957880 14.943299 21.729381 36.580892 82.382539 516.407797 NaN
2025-05-18 10.516520 14.414048 21.122379 36.085754 84.321621 669.016739 NaN
2025-05-25 10.180666 14.039496 20.769150 36.138250 88.581227 1035.490854 NaN
2025-06-01 9.830291 13.618985 20.292442 35.811896 91.222852 1625.828108 NaN
2025-06-08 9.502806 13.218944 19.822615 35.431499 93.548481 2921.519552 NaN
2025-06-15 9.200958 12.846809 19.378359 35.051953 95.800530 7353.424969 NaN
2025-06-22 8.940173 12.532138 19.023062 34.855186 99.018036 936849.374828 NaN
2025-06-29 8.637902 12.131276 18.470227 34.053823 98.617793 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.593518 12.178153 18.813433 35.765097 114.404712 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.361894 11.882138 18.437704 35.385982 116.963456 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.195586 11.694981 18.273309 35.601736 124.176497 NaN NaN